The bear market for classics

[tbm3fan]

Ran across this a moment ago. Obviously this will also happen to 60's cars eventually for the same reason.

Baby boomers, who have been reshaping the economy for their entire lives, are doing it again, but in a less macro way. They are depressing prices in the collector car market because they're losing interest in classic American cars from the 1950s -- the cars of their youth.
The bear market in American classics stands in sharp contrast to the demand for historic exotic and foreign cars, which has strongly rebounded from its post-recession slowdown. Last August, a 1967 Ferrari was auctioned for $27.5 million -- a record for a road car. A few months earlier, a 1954 Mercedes race car went for $29.6 million.
Not so for '50s cars from the old Big Three as well as now-defunct makers like Studebaker and Packard. The evidence comes in the March issue of Car & Driver, in an article by Rob Sass of Hagerty Insurance, which specializes in insurance for antique and vintage autos. According to Hagerty's index of prices of '50s American classics, Sass writes, activity peaked in August 2007 and hasn't recovered. The decline affects everything from popular favorites like the Chevy Bel Air to rarities like the Packard Caribbean convertible.
In their prime, baby boomers were big buyers. But now, Sass writes, "their interest in the hobby is starting to wane." Nor does he see the market rebounding any time soon. The millennial generation doesn't have a comparable level of interest. "It's questionable whether they will care about the cars of their grandfathers and great-grandfathers -- or any cars," he adds.
Here are some data points from the post-war era of tailfins, two-tone paint jobs, and whitewall tires. The condition of the cars ranges on a scale from condition four (daily driver with visible flaws) up to condition one (perfectly clean, groomed down to the tire treads). In a few exceptional categories buyers have made money by catching the peak of the market, but the overall trend is down.
The best advice for someone considering a classic car as an investment is to buy what you love; any appreciation should be secondary to the pride of ownership -- and the satisfaction of preserving a slice of history for future generations.

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/autos/...bear-market.fortune/index.html?xid=ob_febtest

 

[Pete Kaczmarski]

The last sentence of the article is exactly what I have said on this website and what I live by in purchasing a '66 Toronado in December 2013.

 

[Catfish]

Sweet, maybe soon I can afford to but a black 55 Belair in the stable.

 

[Stormer]

55 is my favorite bel air but they still don't do much for me. They make pretty cool race cars I guess. I'll take a 57 apache though.

 

[bluefury361]

classic American cars from the 1950s ............!!!!!!
Technically speaking......... And according to the CCCA, (Classic Car Club of America), There are no 50's cars that are recognized by that club as a true "Classic". They are antique cars.

 

[Catfish]

55 is my favorite bel air but they still don't do much for me. They make pretty cool race cars I guess. I'll take a 57 apache though.

I have always loved the 55. So clean looking. Agreed they look good as racers, but I love them as resto mods.

 

[BIGBARNEYCARS]

I used to pull weekend liberty in '57 and raise hell on colorado blvd. in Pasadina with a car-bud friend that sold Chebbyz at dealership in Pomona. seemed like every one he took home for the weekend waz an FI car! Gee whizzer folks, think he knew somethin' most didn't?

 

[commando1]

The last sentence of the article is exactly what I have said on this website and what I live by in purchasing a '66 Toronado in December 2013.

Now, somebody tell that guy flipping the red 67 Fury III convertible for $24k.

Posted via Topify on Android

 

[72Fury]

Long term I hope it is not this. Duesenberg at a scrap drive.

 

[1978 NYB]

I remember that I could buy running 1955-1957 Chevy's all day long for $50 in 1969 and the early 1970's.

I wanted a 1969 RR....I happily found a 1969 Super Bee in 1971.

 

[commando1]

I remember that...

Even doing that is getting more difficult.

 

[bluefury361]

Originally Posted by 1978 NYB
I remember that...

Even doing that is getting more difficult.

Yeah ...... I can't remember s**t anymore..... :thinker:

 

[rexus31]

It's funny to me that they used a couple of the rarest cars on the planet as examples of their "Bull Market" Foreign and Exotic category. No regular production car from any era will come close to that Ferrari and Mercedes. It's funny that they quote a rep from Hagerty. If you use their valuation tool, a 1957 300C Convertible in #1 Condition currently values at $189,000 which is higher than it was in 2006 ($177,400). A 1957 Chevy Bel Air, 283 4V in #1 Condition currently values at $88,000 which is up from the $86,000 valuation in 2006. A 1957 DeSoto Adverturer Coupe in #1 Condition currently values at $72,000 which is up from a $54,700 valuation in 2006. I don't get the "sky is falling" mentality and the unfair comparisons of uber-rare record setters (Ferrari and Mercedes).

 

[polara66hardtop]

I guess I'm the eternal optimist. Almost everyone I deal with for parts or help are in their 30"s. they come over with their wives and Kids to jaw about the old cars. It may be true that the super expensive rare cars may decrease in value, but so many people I know are so fed up with overpriced muscle cars and hardtops that the are flocking to the cheaper four door sedans. I think that is a good thing. I like the roadrunner/GTX/cuda cars, but when I go to a show and there are thirty to forty of them, I get bored and leave. In phoenix recently the Arizona mopar unlimited had a show with over 120 cars, on short notice. They blew the mustang club away, as they could only muster 76. The Interesting part was the significant number of four door sedans and wagons, with young families and little kids in their car seats, and Ice cream everywhere. The hobby may be changing, But a real show to me is a rare 57' Plymouth wagon sitting next to an awesome 64 fury hardtop. Don't get me wrong, I have my share of the 60's muscle cars, but I have the best time when driving the 66' Polara. That car could go to the coast and back without breaking a sweat. I got so excited seeing all the old C body sedans I've renewed my search for a pristine 71' new Yorker like My wife drove when the kids were little back in the 80's. So stay positive, Studebakers and Packards were already dead in the water in 1978, nothing new there.

 

[cld]

I guess I'm the eternal optimist. Almost everyone I deal with for parts or help are in their 30"s. they come over with their wives and Kids to jaw about the old cars. It may be true that the super expensive rare cars may decrease in value, but so many people I know are so fed up with overpriced muscle cars and hardtops that the are flocking to the cheaper four door sedans. I think that is a good thing. I like the roadrunner/GTX/cuda cars, but when I go to a show and there are thirty to forty of them, I get bored and leave. In phoenix recently the Arizona mopar unlimited had a show with over 120 cars, on short notice. They blew the mustang club away, as they could only muster 76. The Interesting part was the significant number of four door sedans and wagons, with young families and little kids in their car seats, and Ice cream everywhere. The hobby may be changing, But a real show to me is a rare 57' Plymouth wagon sitting next to an awesome 64 fury hardtop. Don't get me wrong, I have my share of the 60's muscle cars, but I have the best time when driving the 66' Polara. That car could go to the coast and back without breaking a sweat. I got so excited seeing all the old C body sedans I've renewed my search for a pristine 71' new Yorker like My wife drove when the kids were little back in the 80's. So stay positive, Studebakers and Packards were already dead in the water in 1978, nothing new there.

Great point. My gut sense is there's more age diversity when you get outside the stratosphere of high-dollar show cars/trailer queens. I'm in my 30s and see a lot of other younger folks around with cars like mine... decent but with lots of rough edges, missing pieces, etc. I went to a free local car show last weekend that I thought would be a super-casual event with some project cars and whatnot, but it was all really high-end stuff brought by guys who seemed to be mostly retired or close to retirement. Maybe part of the issue is that in general, younger people have less money! But the interest is there.

EDIT: just re-read that and I want to clarify I don't mean to say that people who are older are all rolling in dough! I know lots of folks (like my parents) are on very tight fixed incomes. Across the population, though, it is generally true that younger folks have less money, which is a point that's been made in various news stories recently about how millenials and other younger generations are not buying very many new cars.

 

[67Monaco]

It's funny that they quote a rep from Hagerty. If you use their valuation tool, a 1957 300C Convertible in #1 Condition currently values at $189,000 which is higher than it was in 2006 ($177,400).

Price is not value. IF the mere price were keeping up with inflation (dollar devaulation, reduction in purchasing power) it would be north of $215,00.00. The fact that the price hasn't even kept up with two years worth of inflation since 2006 would imply to me that the value of the car has in-fact dropped.

 

[tbm3fan]

Great point. My gut sense is there's more age diversity when you get outside the stratosphere of high-dollar show cars/trailer queens. I'm in my 30s and see a lot of other younger folks around with cars like mine... decent but with lots of rough edges, missing pieces, etc. I went to a free local car show last weekend that I thought would be a super-casual event with some project cars and whatnot, but it was all really high-end stuff brought by guys who seemed to be mostly retired or close to retirement. Maybe part of the issue is that in general, younger people have less money! But the interest is there.

EDIT: just re-read that and I want to clarify I don't mean to say that people who are older are all rolling in dough! I know lots of folks (like my parents) are on very tight fixed incomes. Across the population, though, it is generally true that younger folks have less money, which is a point that's been made in various news stories recently about how millenials and other younger generations are not buying very many new cars.

Out here one doesn't see that. The "millennials" are not into them. My two 28 year old nephews have been around lots of old cars. Their interest lies from the late 80's onwards. More important neither know how to work on cars despite my brother and me. The local high school, where money is no object, you may see a couple of early Mustangs and the like. Yet that is out of hundreds of cars. The Mopar show which had a definite older crowd and younger crowd was clearly split. Younger crowd all were in the newer 300 with a lot of the stuff on them that we can't stand. From big rims, to red/blue lighting to swing up doors.

While there are those younger who like these cars, the overall critical mass of numbers is declining slowly but surely. My Fun Ford show is down by half over the last 10 years with many older owners no longer seen and what is there are new Mustangs. So there will never be enough of them to handle the large amount of old cars we have now. Money is one issue, where to put, starting a job, starting a family, having kids all put a damper on this stuff. We all know that. By the time they are in their mid-50's and have time it will be 2035. So your 70 year old New Yorker will either be an orphan or have been crushed already. I fully expect to see two of my cars crushed by then should I still be alive. Those would be the Park Lane and Polara for sure.

As I said it is all a numbers, money and emotional attachment game. Their numbers are way below our numbers. Their money is nowhere to be seen for at least 25 years given kid's college and mortgage. Last, they have no emotional attachment to these cars and that is critical. That is what drives each and every one of us. In fact it is our strong emotional attachment to our cars that we can't see, our imagine, what the future holds for our cars 25-30 years from now. We don't want to see...

Oh, and Hagerty has go to be the most out there when it comes to valuation of everyday cars sans exotics and select muscle. They are just not believable in the real world. No different than a think tank dreaming up all kinds of new ideas for society and then finding them fall flat when actually presented to a real society.

 

[cld]

Thanks, that's a very well-written analysis.

 

[cm23uoc]

If you can't relate to these cars due to age, the interest automatically declines. Who's into Model T Fords these days ?
I think I'm among the youngest interested in the earliest postwar cars at 43. Go figure.

 

[Marian]

Ok...<sigh> I'm thinking about looking for a 68 Pink Cadi Vert. No you dont have to cut your corner off of your man card....I'm just saying. Sometimes old and memorable makes sense....not for money...but for...memories.