It finally happened A Tesla car that crashed and killed the driver was running on Autopilot

Davea Lux said:
The report I read had everything grouped together to show an aggregate loss per unit. Do you know if the S and X models are profitable without the government incentives to produce "green" cars? That is the real fly in the ointment down the road because it is becoming less likely in the current political climate that such subsidies will be continued.
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This analysis basically says that Tesla has not been able to find economies of scale. As their sales have gone up, their cost of sales have gone up just as fast, leaving no net profit with which to fund R&D.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-margins-profitability

commando1 said:
Tesla is what happens when geeks think they can build something better than real manufacturing professionals.
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To be fair, they did involve a number of industry professionals leading up to the Model-S launch and it was a relatively smooth rollout. Musk's hubris took over for the Model-X though. It was designed in-house and was overambitious/overengineered with the huge one-piece windshield skylight, single-post seats and "falcon wing" rear doors. (A lot of effort to avoid putting sliding rear doors on it and calling it a minivan IMO.)

The Model-3 is what will make or break the company, and it's not looking so good right now. A big problem is that they skipped the "soft tooling" stage. This is when they make less expensive molds and dies from less durable metals and assemble some initial test-run cars to work out bugs in the assembly line and parts fitment. Industry guys said that would be a mistake, and they were right.
 
Mike66Chryslers said:
This analysis basically says that Tesla has not been able to find economies of scale. As their sales have gone up, their cost of sales have gone up just as fast, leaving no net profit with which to fund R&D.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-margins-profitability



To be fair, they did involve a number of industry professionals leading up to the Model-S launch and it was a relatively smooth rollout. Musk's hubris took over for the Model-X though. It was designed in-house and was overambitious/overengineered with the huge one-piece windshield skylight, single-post seats and "falcon wing" rear doors. (A lot of effort to avoid putting sliding rear doors on it and calling it a minivan IMO.)

The Model-3 is what will make or break the company, and it's not looking so good right now. A big problem is that they skipped the "soft tooling" stage. This is when they make less expensive molds and dies from less durable metals and assemble some initial test-run cars to work out bugs in the assembly line and parts fitment. Industry guys said that would be a mistake, and they were right.
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Thanks, Mike.
How have you become so familiar with Tesla's manufacturing ineptness?
 
commando1 said:
Thanks, Mike.
How have you become so familiar with Tesla's manufacturing ineptness?
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I read a lot and I've always been very interested in what's going on in the automotive industry. While I'm definitely not a Tesla "fanboy" and will likely never own one of their vehicles, I am hopeful that they will ultimately be successful. An new independent domestic car company with cutting edge technology that is also upending the entrenched dealership sales model is very exciting. Tesla is what Saturn promised to be: "A different kind of car company; a different kind of car." (I was very disappointed when I learned that Saturn was just another GM division, the pet project of Roger Smith.)
 
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Mike66Chryslers said:
While I'm definitely not a Tesla "fanboy" and will likely never own one of their vehicles, I am hopeful that they will ultimately be successful.
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All I see is the similarities Tesla and Elizabeth Holmes with Theranos.
And I don't want to bring up Tucker, Muntz, and DeLorian. Apples and oranges.
 
commando1 said:
All I see is the similarities Tesla and Elizabeth Holmes with Theranos.
And I don't want to bring up Tucker, Muntz, and DeLorian. Apples and oranges.
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But Teslas are not vaporware; I see a Model-S or Model-X on the road almost daily. Model-3s are also in production, albeit very slow production, and I have yet to see one. By that measure, Tesla is already more successful than any of those car companies were. Elizabeth Holmes was guilty of fraud for misrepresenting a flawed technology. Elon Musk is certainly a showman, but what makes him or his company a fraud?
 
Welder guy said:
Am I wrong in thinking that if you’re not watching the road you’re going to get into an accident. Auto pilot or no auto pilot
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The real catch22 here is if you see a problem ahead, how can you rassle the controls back in time to avert the collision?
 
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mr. fix it said:
The real catch22 here is if you see a problem ahead, how can you rassle the controls back in time to avert the collision?
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Watch the video in the TTAC link that I posted. It was not difficult. In fact, with Tesla's Autopilot you are supposed to keep your hands on the steering wheel. It's basically a very advanced form of adaptive cruise control plus lane-keeping assist.

In the video, the car actually warns the driver with a tone and flashing light that it's encountered a situation that it's not sure about, and wants him to intervene. In the video the driver turns the wheel back into its lane to avoid an accident. Tesla says its onboard data logger from the crash reported that it warned the driver to take over but their hands were off the steering wheel for 6 seconds leading up to the crash.

The NHTSA defines 5 levels of autonomous driving. Tesla Autopilot is currently considered level 2 or 3. Up to level 3, the driver is expected to remain attentive and take control as necessary. People have argued, and rightly so, that if your only involvement for long periods is to sit and watch, your mind is going to drift off. They say that makes these systems inherently dangerous and should be banned.

Autonomous car - Wikipedia

As long as this classification is allowed, automakers will get a pass from NHTSA on the occasional accident as long as they show that the system was working to specification by warning the driver to engage with enough time to react to avoid an accident, but they ignored the warnings. Or if they can prove that the driver did something to defeat the warning system and make it think they had their hands on the steering wheel. (Apparently you can trick the Tesla system into thinking you're holding the wheel by wedging an orange between the center and the rim of the wheel.)
 
Mike66Chryslers said:
Watch the video in the TTAC link that I posted. It was not difficult. In fact, with Tesla's Autopilot you are supposed to keep your hands on the steering wheel. It's basically a very advanced form of adaptive cruise control plus lane-keeping assist.
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A few days after this crash a fellow took a Tesla out for a drive on the same freeway to do his own test. Note that the car uses cameras around it's perimeter to locate where lanes are basically. This driver found that when the lane marker was faint, say left side, the car tended to drift towards the left. As it drifted the computer did alert the driver.

As an aside, given this is ground zero for Tesla cars, a drunk driver was caught on the Bay Bridge traffic. He is arguing that even though he was drunk he is not responsible because the car was on autopilot and doing the driving. Either he is being very creative, or he doesn't comprehend what autopilot means, or both.
 
We don't want these things where are the focus groups ??? I've seen these dorky looking things lapping ASU all day long. Here is the real fix...

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mdh157 said:
Elon Musk is a wiz
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Naaa, just a pie in the sky nut job. Watch the SpaceX post launch press conference on YouTube, can't speak worth 'chit.
Better yet watch the Mars fantasy speech were it sounds like he wants to evacuate the whole planet.
In my opinion he is just the 21st Century's Howard Hughes, and we know how all that turned out.

No thank you Elon I only have room at present to decipher one that's more down to earth 'Nutter'. :D

 
I have absolutely no issue with having a data logger in any vehicle I am driving. If I do something stupid and cause the death of some innocent person I am more than willing to accept personal responsibility for my actions. To me, anyone whose first reaction is to destroy any evidence of their failure to drive responsibly is a sign of someone that feels they are not accountable for their actions. This does not mean that I never speed, or always come to a complete 100% stop at stop signs, it simply means that I accept responsibility for my actions.
We do not have autonomous vehicles yet, so anyone operating a vehicle as though it was autonomous is simply put, an idiot. The story about the guy in the motorhome was a joke story I heard back in the 70s on Johnny Carson. Where I live we have road construction from April to November on all highways. Lane closures happen at any time without markings being changed unless the closure is going to happen over more than a day. They use traffic cones usually in those cases. No idea how that impacts any of the automated controls in use.
Don't know how it is in the USA, but here GPS navigation only knows speed limits for highways and some main thoroughfares. Usually only the multilane streets are known, 2 lane main streets are not known as far as speed limits are concerned.
Autonomous vehicles are a long way off yet. I seriously doubt anyone reading this post on the day it was written will ever see fully autonomous cars and trucks on the roads.
Something that we all need to understand though is that just because you cannot understand how they could possibly get around some issue you think is insurmountable, does not mean they won't. Ask your grandparents if they ever thought a booster rocket could ever be brought back to a landing pad and land in a controlled manner, or did they say there was no way they could ever do that.
 
traintech55 said:
They sorry fact is the families of these innocent people who were killed will have to deal with that loss forever, and trust me the pain never goes away.
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This is so true, and most people don't realize just how long pain can linger. My Uncle Gary was killed by a drunk driver at 16 years old back in 1966. Over 50 years later and my grandmother still has his picture hanging in her bedroom, and at 93 years old she still tells stories and mentions him often.
This story also has a second meaning for those of you who have lost someone like this. Always remember that no matter how much time passes, those loved ones will always be alive in your heart.
 
Jon O. said:
This is so true, and most people don't realize just how long pain can linger. My Uncle Gary was killed by a drunk driver at 16 years old back in 1966. Over 50 years later and my grandmother still has his picture hanging in her bedroom, and at 93 years old she still tells stories and mentions him often.
This story also has a second meaning for those of you who have lost someone like this. Always remember that no matter how much time passes, those loved ones will always be alive in your heart.
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Thank you for this nice reply. It is especially tragic when someone you love passes tragically, when you never get to say goodbye. You always wonder, "WHAT IF".
 
traintech55 said:
Thank you for this nice reply. It is especially tragic when someone you love passes tragically, when you never get to say goodbye. You always wonder, "WHAT IF".
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Believe me I know about never getting to say goodbye. My favorite grandmother passed away in 2009, she had blockage near her heart. The doctor gave her less than a week to live, and we were supposed to see her on that friday. She passed away in her sleep that friday morning. I was told that her last words were "Where is that sweet little boy who gives me kisses?" (refering to me) I never did get to say goodbye, but when I pray before bed, I still say goodnight to grandma.
 
Another Tesla car crashed into the back of a fire truck doing 60 mph while on auto pilot . The fire truck was protecting the first responders of a previous accident On a California freeway . It’s amazing no one was hurt ! Here comes another multimillion dollar lawsuit.

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Welder guy said:
Another Tesla car crashed into the back of a fire truck doing 60 mph while on auto pilot . The fire truck was protecting the first responders of a previous accident On a California freeway . It’s amazing no one was hurt ! Here comes another multimillion dollar lawsuit.
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This is really no different to using cruise at this time. You are still required to pay attention when driving on any roads, and any driver that ignores that warning should be serving time as a result of their deliberate inactions. Cars are not autonomous. Perhaps Tesla needs to develop a "driver attention" feature that sends a short tazer shot across the drivers sac to get his attention.
What I really don't understand is how anyone could put their life in the hands of something that is not designed to fail safe. Anyone recall when they first learned to drive and were almost afraid to take their eyes of the road to check blind spot or to adjust the heater or fan speed?

Anyone that has used anything with software knows it is never bug free. We are back in Windows 2 time in regards to stability of "auto-pilot" in road going cars.
 
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